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12 years to Climate Change Armageddon
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GrahamO




Joined: 10 Apr 2005
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Location: United Arab Emirates or an airport

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gus wrote:
A few years ago, I was sitting on a balcony in Dubai Mall overlooking the Dubai skyline at night. It was an impressive sea of buildings lit up with the most spectacular light shows as far as the eye could see. Aircon units blasting out everywhere... the indoor ski-slope in the distance maintaining -5 degrees against the 40 degree heat....


Unless you can see through buildings, or around corners, there's no way on earth you can see the ski slope from a balcony at Dubai Mall.

Dubai currently has a gigawatt of PV solar running now (out in th desert next to the cycle track coincidentally) , rising up to 5 GW being commissioned and the cost is so low, that its the same price as carbon based fuels. Its also ordered a solar power storage array using liquefied salt towers, so it will soon be able to run at night off daytime solar power. Its got a six core nuclear reactor coming online next year south of Abu Dhabi and the analysts I met yesterday, said you can expect the place to be running almost entirely off non-fossil fuel derived electric supply in 8 years time. Tesla cars are popping up all over the place now (probably because of the cheap electricity and that the car out accelerates just about anything).

A lot of the lights have been replaced by LED's recently, but I take your point. You changing your lightbulbs won't help the west. You need to spend big, like Dubai and do it now - and of course, use the advantage of a beneficial autocracy to tell objectors to STFU and get out of the way.
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Gus




Joined: 07 Sep 2007
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Location: Freezing my nads off in Aberdoom

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="GrahamO"]
Gus wrote:
You changing your lightbulbs won't help the west. You need to spend big, like Dubai and do it now - and of course, use the advantage of a beneficial autocracy to tell objectors to STFU and get out of the way.


Yep, that basically was the point... same goes for my time in China as well.

Which is why they're all bulldozing ahead in the game of life whilst we fall behind, hand-wringing as we pat ourselves on the back for being so righteous.
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The shift to renewable energy won't happen because it is green, it will happen because it is cheaper

Yesterday there was a good BBC article

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45786690

Which makes a reasonably coherent article why car ownership will dwindle massively in the future.

What it fails to address is the massive political and marketing pressure that car manufacturers will push to ensure that this does not happen
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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Location: Farthingstone

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
The shift to renewable energy won't happen because it is green, it will happen because it is cheaper

Yesterday there was a good BBC article

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45786690

Which makes a reasonably coherent article why car ownership will dwindle massively in the future.

What it fails to address is the massive political and marketing pressure that car manufacturers will push to ensure that this does not happen


interesting flight magazine piece, but doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of any of the claims it makes so readily...
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Buzz_




Joined: 19 May 2007
Posts: 372

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can argue over timescales, but every automotive company believes this day is coming. Why do you think Tesla has a higher stock market valuation than Ford - it's not all vacuous hype (although undoubtedly some of it is).

Of course the car makers will try and argue you need to own your driverless car. I know my car has a lot of personal detritus in it that would be a pain to remove and re-install for every journey, but how much am I prepared to pay for that convenience? It opens up the possibility that you can use a small personal vehicle for commuting and a nice family friendly suv for a weekend at the triathlon.

Urban areas will convert first. There are bigger challenges with autonomous driving outside of closed environments. But I can see current city centre congestion zones converting to driverless only within the timescales in the article. There is also a generational shift. Young are already driving less and owning cars less - priced out by the cost of insurance. They are also bought into the subscription model for a lot of other aspects of their lives. They will readily accept a monthly fee that gives them access to transportation without the need to own anything.
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GrahamO




Joined: 10 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
interesting flight magazine piece, but doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of any of the claims it makes so readily...


Agreed - a complete puff piece. Its like claiming that Boris bikes would have removed the need for private bikes in London.

And when they say 'a growing number of tech analysts' they mean three now instead of four out of a count of several thousand. As alluded above, I just sat through a whole session on energy, carbon issues etc and not one of them said the car would disappear. They all said it'll be electric but sharing cars full time - not a chance.
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
interesting flight magazine piece, but doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of any of the claims it makes so readily...


Agreed - a complete puff piece. Its like claiming that Boris bikes would have removed the need for private bikes in London.

And when they say 'a growing number of tech analysts' they mean three now instead of four out of a count of several thousand. As alluded above, I just sat through a whole session on energy, carbon issues etc and not one of them said the car would disappear. They all said it'll be electric but sharing cars full time - not a chance.


Without going back to check, it claims something along the lines of vehicles on demand at anytime...which is kind of what we have in my village now...but it takes about two cars per household to achieve that currently...
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Buzz_




Joined: 19 May 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
Without going back to check, it claims something along the lines of vehicles on demand at anytime...which is kind of what we have in my village now...but it takes about two cars per household to achieve that currently...

It also says cars are parked for 95% of their lives, which is true. We pay a high price to have instant access to personal transportation, if you work out how much it costs to have a car parked outside your house for a year. The cost/mile only starts to come down when you drive more, hence there is little incentive to seek alternative transport once you have the asset sat in the drive/street. If you can get the convenience of a personal car without the requirement to own then that will become an attractive option for many.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buzz_ wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
Without going back to check, it claims something along the lines of vehicles on demand at anytime...which is kind of what we have in my village now...but it takes about two cars per household to achieve that currently...

It also says cars are parked for 95% of their lives, which is true. We pay a high price to have instant access to personal transportation, if you work out how much it costs to have a car parked outside your house for a year. The cost/mile only starts to come down when you drive more, hence there is little incentive to seek alternative transport once you have the asset sat in the drive/street. If you can get the convenience of a personal car without the requirement to own then that will become an attractive option for many.


and i wonder what we would have to pay for the convenience of a similar number of vehicles to be on standby?
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SGreg




Joined: 30 Jun 2010
Posts: 1050
Location: High Peak

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Take our little rural estate for example,

From 7pm - 7am 90% of the drive space is full.

From 9am - 5pm 90% of the drive space is empty, however, the cars are parked up in a works carpark somewhere.

The two other small windows those cars are driving. What would the 90% of driverless robo cars be doing during the down periods? Plotting our downfall I suspect!

I can see robocars working in a city environment, but in a rural setting, it just won't work as you would practically need a robo car each to make it viable.
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
Take our little rural estate for example,

From 7pm - 7am 90% of the drive space is full.

From 9am - 5pm 90% of the drive space is empty, however, the cars are parked up in a works carpark somewhere.

The two other small windows those cars are driving. What would the 90% of driverless robo cars be doing during the down periods? Plotting our downfall I suspect!

I can see robocars working in a city environment, but in a rural setting, it just won't work as you would practically need a robo car each to make it viable.


exactly, so, improve public transport in cities and improve working communities and communications to reduce transport needs...
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Whisk




Joined: 09 Jun 2005
Posts: 8627
Location: London

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see car sharing or public transport ever being a convenient option for anyone living in a rural environment. But, I can see things moving in that direction in the bigger cities.

We've lived in the same development in central London for the last 20-odd years. Most of the houses and flats in the complex are rentals, with the majority of those going as house-shares to youngish people. When we first moved in, parking was a real issue as most properties had at least one car.

Now, the on-site car parks are virtually empty most of the time as most households don't own a car. What we do see is a steady stream of mini-cabs picking people up and dropping them off at the gates (and an endless procession of takeaway deliveries Rolling Eyes ). We also see quite a few ZipCars at the weekend, but it seems like a large proportion of younger people have never even bothered to learn to drive. Our car feels like a bit of a luxury at times and would be one of the first things to go if we had to tighten our belts, but we like the convenience of having it whenever we want it.

Interestingly, a lot of people in our complex cycle to work. Cycling was an unusual transport choice in London when I started doing it 20 years ago, but it's very much in the mainstream now. Frustratingly, our complex is on a one-way street and 90% of the cyclists that I see heading out choose to risk cycling the wrong way down a narrow, busy road to save riding an extra 200m by going the right way Mad
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whisk wrote:
I don't see car sharing or public transport ever being a convenient option for anyone living in a rural environment. But, I can see things moving in that direction in the bigger cities.

We've lived in the same development in central London for the last 20-odd years. Most of the houses and flats in the complex are rentals, with the majority of those going as house-shares to youngish people. When we first moved in, parking was a real issue as most properties had at least one car.

Now, the on-site car parks are virtually empty most of the time as most households don't own a car. What we do see is a steady stream of mini-cabs picking people up and dropping them off at the gates (and an endless procession of takeaway deliveries Rolling Eyes ). We also see quite a few ZipCars at the weekend, but it seems like a large proportion of younger people have never even bothered to learn to drive. Our car feels like a bit of a luxury at times and would be one of the first things to go if we had to tighten our belts, but we like the convenience of having it whenever we want it.

Interestingly, a lot of people in our complex cycle to work. Cycling was an unusual transport choice in London when I started doing it 20 years ago, but it's very much in the mainstream now. Frustratingly, our complex is on a one-way street and 90% of the cyclists that I see heading out choose to risk cycling the wrong way down a narrow, busy road to save riding an extra 200m by going the right way Mad


they have had years to sort this mess out...and therefore it is more than likely that it will be bikes rather than buses/trams/tube that forces cars off the road in cities...

running two cars is a real pita and we will go down to one as soon as is feasible...
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Being a lazy sod I can’t be bothered finding the thread on this, so I will append this here, with the comment that perhaps climate change is the least of our worries.

This weeks Economist briefing on America and China Relations..

“China’s anti-ship missiles, launched at sea, in the air or from the ground, are more plentiful and more advanced than America’s, and some boast longer ranges, too; the same goes for some of its other munitions”.

For those who doubt my views on the possibility of global war in the next decade (I am still around 43%) really should read that Economist article. Slowly and carefully.

America is losing its place much faster than many seem willing to recognise, but at least the Economist is catching up.

Anyhow what the heck do I know.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

America has been losing its place for several years and since China found capitalism, it has been catching up and perhaps is now going passed...

i have no idea whether having China at the helm of the world will be any better or worse than the US...only time will tell.

The US military budget still dwarfs that of China, and although China has a strong naval fleet, the US both rules the skies and the nukes...

China's only other advantage is head of population - although it is possible that post communism, the people may now tell them to p1ss off*

i would still be more worried about China's contribution to the state of the planet than the likelihood of there being a war...

*Oh the irony....the last redoubt of communism finally gives way only to be replaced by the moronic kids of the US and Canada 9and fast on their heels, the UK)...
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